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10. Appendix (10.1.2)
Written by Messiah   
Thursday, 06 July 2006

10.1.2    Know the details to know the future

Every person or society proceeds on the assumption that if something is known about a situation its future is predictable to some extent and that the accuracy of the prediction depends on the amount and quality of the information possessed and how far ahead the expected event is. Increased knowledge and shorter time scales enable prediction with greater certainty. This applies to every action from crossing roads to declaring war. Any person or society that does not act in accordance with this rule dies out. Inevitability Theory simply takes this truth to its logical ultimate point, namely that when everything is known about a situation its future is completely predictable and therefore inevitable or, alternatively, everything is inevitable and therefore completely predictable.

If a brick is held above a table and dropped, it will inevitably fall and hit the table. You might argue that lightning or earthquake could unexpectedly prevent this. However, if detectors of every type are installed at adequate distances round the table, all threats can eventually be foreseen and the fall confidently predicted. You might then say a failure in gravity could not be predicted. Better scientific understanding of gravity and therefore prediction of its behaviour is probably not far off and, anyway, you could always fasten springs and elastic bands from the brick into the table. You might finally say that a human threat from someone who wanted to prevent it falling was unique in that it could not be predicted. Start with simple evidence in the case for predictability of people. If you paraded for Queen Victoria 10,000 Grenadier Guardsmen, who had been promised extra pay and a long week-end in Brighton and ordered, "One pace forward march", you could predict at least 99.9% would do so. You would even know what the majority were thinking. If on the next parade you marshalled 10,000 Guinness drinking prisoners, under no threat, you could predict that less than 99.9% would choose to step forward. If you knew the thoughts or movements of every molecule in the brains of all present you would have 100% short-term predictability, approaching this figure more closely the more information you possessed. Exponents of ideas like Uncertainty and Chaos Theory sometimes claim that things are too complicated and chaotic to predict with certainty. Imagine showing the Internet to Stone Age Man and asking him how it works. He does not know but that does not mean it does not exist.. We are in a similar situation with regard to exact prediction of the future and, like him, will probably one day evolve to a state of understanding. Consider the case of a hairy animal’s coat while running, or forest of leaves blowing in the wind or a random flock of birds suddenly becoming organised in an ordered flight path. We would not think it possible to predict the exact future of such systems because they are too extensive and complicated for our concepts or present stage of technology, even though most people would accept such things as purely mechanical systems until, if you are a moralist, directly influenced by humanity. Chaos Theory is already being used to predict crowd and traffic behaviour, which is evidence of total predictability and consequent inevitability.

Consistent evidence for Inevitability Theory arises from simple situations. If you walked into an American wood in the 18th century and an arrow with feathers on it whizzed by, you would deduce Indians were probably in the wood. If you then came across a wigwam with a fire burning in front of it, items of clothing etc. you would become increasingly certain of their presence but would not be absolutely certain before you had spoken to some and were convinced they were not white men in disguise. The point is the more you know about a situation the nearer you approach absolute certainty and predictability. There is the further aspect that if you are studying Inevitability Theory and nothing you come across ever contradicts it, the absence of contradiction itself is strong evidence for the theory. Contrast this with what happens when you apply religious and moral explanations to situations - in every case anomalies and impenetrable contradictions arise.

Yet another item of evidence is that the nearer in time you come to anything about to happen, the more inevitable the outcome apparently becomes. A speeding bullet one millimetre from a wall is inevitably going to hit it. Why should an event which is in train be any less inevitable in its outcome 5 years, 5 minutes or 5 milliseconds before happening? It appears so only because we do not have and cannot process the greater range of information necessary for prediction the farther we are in time from the event. The information required against time situation can be compared to a fan-shape or funnel. Near to the event you are at the narrow end but as you move farther away in time it widens. How rapidly the fan or funnel widens and in what dimensions we do not yet know but with Inevitabilty Theory we are at least aware of the question. The steadily increasing predictability of events the nearer you get to them is evidence for Inevitability Theory.

Massive evidence for Inevitability Theory arises from archaeology, palaeontology and geology. From the beginning of the world everything, including life, has followed a structured pattern of development originating from a random system. Its evolution from gases to man can be seen to have precisely followed an inevitable pattern, dictated by the local environment and interfered with from time to time by major events such as meteors, unusually severe ice ages etc., some of which have been of sufficient severity almost to wipe out life on earth but all of which were entirely mechanical functions.

It will be possible one day to read molecules, minds and genes sufficiently accurately for exact predictions. Even today, sophisticated machines, similar to Lie Detectors, are being proposed which can read thoughts. With such machines the short-term prediction of human behaviour will approach 100% accuracy, leaving little room for the concept of free will but all the room in the universe for Inevitability Theory. By the way, Inevitability Theory suits very well the concept that an infinite number of universes exist, allowing for every possible combination of circumstances to occur.

Accuracy of prediction will decrease the farther away in time the event is from the prediction but will increase as knowledge improves. This practical limitation does not detract from the basic truth that the events themselves are proceeding to an inevitable pattern - it is just that our technology will need time to analyse all the factors. Your prediction itself is, of course, inevitable and will always be what it was going to be. It will record things either as they do work out or as they do not work out and itself be part of the inevitable course of events. It can be argued that a logical thing to do is to act illogically because that is what you were going to do anyway.

Heisenberg’s and similar uncertainty theories imply that nothing is predictable. This is comforting for the moralists but perhaps enthusiasm for quantum mechanics is coloured a little by a natural human inclination to protect ‘free will’ and by the way in which people already think. Heisenberg and others could, of course be right but it is also possible that their expression of uncertainty and similar principles are simply part of the total inevitability proceeding against a background which is too complicated for them to understand yet.

Conclusion: The more you know about a situation, the more predictable its outcome is and the nearer you get to complete knowledge the more predictable every situation, even human behaviour, becomes, ultimately reaching absolute certainty about what is, anyway, an inevitable event of which the prediction itself is part.

 


 
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